The Conviction Cliff
How a single binary question can transform uncertainty into decisive action at exactly the right moment.
I went from interested to obsessed in a single concept after being asked one question. I couldn’t believe how simple it was:
“Are you going to pivot or double down?”
This question, when asked at the right time, will set the trajectory of your life.
Every idea will travel along the classic S-curve.
First the excitement, an ignition from newness and naïveté.
Piston. Spark. Detonation. Again. Faster.
Each rev by the engine dumps another shot of dopamine, sparking a tsunami of rogue creativity. Excitement fizzing like a can of Red Bull. Another rev of borrowed power. All the excitement comes from a high-interest energy loan that will demand repayment.
When you looked up, the road vanishes, only the conviction cliff remains.
This was were I found myself.
The Valley of Disappointment. James Clear describes this as the early stages, where you’re expecting to make linear progress.
In those initial days of excitement, at the beginning of the S-curve, my expectations ran wild. Far surpassing any proof of progress. Until I encountered friction from potential competition, complexity, and self-doubt.
Then? A hard stop.
From day one, the Valley is under our feet, the uncertainty is disguised by the rush of novelty.
At this precise moment, a small nudge can tip you forward or back.
“Pivot or double down?” landed right here for me. A binary question that collapsed infinite options down to two: own the bet or walk away.
Uncertainty and doubt, rather than lack of effort, kills momentum at the conviction cliff.
Asking yourself a binary question that forces clarity creates an inflection point.
Ask too early and it’s abstract; too late and you’ve already rationalized quitting.
Notice the moment excitement meets contradictory evidence.
Ask the binary quit or commit question.
A great question, poorly timed, will keep you living the same life.
A simple question, perfectly timed, has the potential to re-anchor your vision, deepen your conviction, and prevent you from drifting.
The question poses whether you commit to giving up or working harder to climb the curve.
If the core concepts still holds true, double down.